Copper Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back, Downstream Restocking Increases, Spot Premiums Edge Higher [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

SMM, September 18, 2025:

Guangdong Region: This week, premiums and discounts in the region bottomed out. At the beginning of the week, spot cargo was at a discount due to rising copper prices and inventory. As copper prices pulled back, downstream procurement volume rebounded, and spot premiums stopped falling and rebounded. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt WoW; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 30 yuan/mt higher in Guangdong, a relatively small difference that left no room for inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 21,200 mt, down 878 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 9,500 mt, down 500 mt WoW. Specifically: weekly warehouse arrivals were 12,400 mt, up 3,300 mt WoW but below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Arrivals increased at the beginning of the week as suppliers actively transferred to delivery warehouses ahead of the delivery date. Weekly outflows from warehouses were 13,300 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW but still below the annual average (14,200 mt/week), as downstream restocking increased later in the week amid a significant pullback in copper prices.

Looking ahead to next week, arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper are expected to be limited, with total supply likely lower than last week. In terms of downstream consumption: as copper prices pull back and with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays approaching, some enterprises are expected to restock in advance, so consumption is expected to increase WoW. Therefore, we believe next week will see reduced supply and recovering consumption, with weekly inventory expected to decline again and spot premiums likely to fluctuate higher.

(The above information is based on market research and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)